hello sir! i was searching for the trigger for this up move, and you came! why in the earth is dollar getting stronger! i mean who is buying dollar! can it be FED! i think they want to have this effect of a strong economy before the elections, so i was thinking such a stunt! and how this is related to UST???...

How are you..... Perfect assessment.......I do hope the same. Sanjay...

UM, your new pic is interesting ; peace symbol upside down with tricolor. I could interpret it in many ways ;) Look how our market are moving up on your appearance....

welcome back...

Indeed!!...

penny person may only think sintex to become penny stock...

hello sir do drop in occasionally!have a nice time!...

happy week ahead UM ji, see you again on Sunday. thanks again.......

so true.....

As Sherlock Holmes said in "Norwood Builder:" ". . . he [the Villain] had not that supreme gift of the artist, the knowledge of when to stop. He wished to improve that which was already perfect . . . and so he ruined all."...

The upside down symbol represents aggressive buying. No peace here....

Hello cx and all my friends.

Decided to look into the market, after seeing the spectacular short covering that occurred in US market yesterday. Almost 190 points fall was retraced.

Today for the first time in several days SBI June futures are in premium.

Yesterday our market did not make the expected fall on global cues.

The rupee is playing spoilsport yet. The question is who is buying. Smart or dumb money.

Maybe the world is about to have an interim bounce before Greek elections....

If the singer should get royalty, what about the orchestra? What about the recording technicians? The real intellectual property is that of (a) the song writer and (b) composer. People generally identify an article with what they can immediately identify--like a voice in case of song, or actor in case of movies. Just because people make such associations it does not become true.

Here I appreciate the stance of Mohammed Rafi, which caused the rift between him and Lata Mangeshkar--he maintained that singers, once they are paid for their recording, do not deserve further payment. He was being just and noble, but he suffered for it. Part of the cause of Rafi`s lost decade (1970s) was this sense of justice.

...

So Bullbirji, all my friends,

All the best for tomorrow! I have a feeling that the market may see a drastic reaction tomorrow, either up or down. Gold has been rising on Thursday and Friday in the expectation of some stimulus. Germany has already done a bit to its own countrymen. The question now is whether it was a palliative action to improve the German popular sentiment before Bundesbank gives in to pressure from Greece and Spain. The markets closed Friday at a turning point it would seem.

Bye for now!!...

That is extremely unlikely. The current fall has happened due to its European exposure and European debt restructuring and rupee depreciation. These dire conditions will not last. One should buy on dips....

As Sherlock Holmes said in "Norwood Builder:"

". . . he [the Villain] had not that supreme gift of the artist, the knowledge of when to stop. He wished to improve that which was already perfect . . . and so he ruined all."...

It is true that a lot of ordinary people, who had nothing else some local knowledge and contacts, say barbers and panwallahs, became rich overnight in the property boom. But almost all of them returned to their previous state after the crash. They started getting delusions of grandeour. They started leveraging on several properties at once, stretching themselves dangerously. The result. An inevitable return to scissors and comb....

Hello cx and all my friends.

Decided to look into the market, after seeing the spectacular short covering that occurred in US market yesterday. Almost 190 points fall was retraced.

Today for the first time in several days SBI June futures are in premium.

Yesterday our market did not make the expected fall on global cues.

The rupee is playing spoilsport yet. The question is who is buying. Smart or dumb money.

Maybe the world is about to have an interim bounce before Greek elections....

That is extremely unlikely. The current fall has happened due to its European exposure and European debt restructuring and rupee depreciation. These dire conditions will not last. One should buy on dips....

As Sherlock Holmes said in "Norwood Builder:"

". . . he [the Villain] had not that supreme gift of the artist, the knowledge of when to stop. He wished to improve that which was already perfect . . . and so he ruined all."...

It is true that a lot of ordinary people, who had nothing else some local knowledge and contacts, say barbers and panwallahs, became rich overnight in the property boom. But almost all of them returned to their previous state after the crash. They started getting delusions of grandeour. They started leveraging on several properties at once, stretching themselves dangerously. The result. An inevitable return to scissors and comb....

Hi friends,

Just got in for a few minutes. Having been away for a few days I may have acquired an overall view of things. Now what I think is this:

"Grexit" (Greece exiting from Eurozone) or "Grejection" (Greece being ejected from Eurozone) is the principal fear of stock markets now. Some say it may happen as early as next week and it will cause a "Lehman event on steroids`|. But I think Grexit is not going to happen immediately.

My reasoning:

1. The loud talk by Alexis Tsipras, is making a lot of taunts against the eurozone, which is evidently directed at winning votes. Probably he will become Greece`s next PM. But after elections he is bound to become practical because he and his party members will realize that carrying out his threats will actually cause anarchy and make him suffer. If EU is expecting pragmatism from him they may delay Grejection till June elections. If Tsipras is actually meaning to carry out the threats he has made he is a fool. Greece imports 40% of its food, all of its oil and most of its medicines. The only real industry is tourism. Even if a return to drachma causes Greek tourism to become cheap, street riots may prevent tourism.

2. EU is likely to take a softer stance on Greece. Tsipras may even be privately consulted. So EU may keep Greece on tenterhooks till the elections are over. Already Germany`s stance has softened Yesterday`s action by German government, to increase their worker`s wages by 4.5% (double that of German inflation) as a clear go-back on austerity. Now, can a country which as already done a significant step against austerity at home yesterday continue to advocate the same to other Europeans in difficulties?

3. Germany is likely to fear the current situation the most. In 2007 65% of their products were exported to EU. Now that has halved. India and China are expected take up the slack but they are also slowing. German fear is this: Suppose Greece exits and somehow manages to put its house in order in about a year, Spain may think the same---to exit from euro and reintroduce their own currency. If Greece is successful (somehow) Spain`s exit will be far less traumatic because international investors will understand that the problems are likely to be temporary. The highly devalued pesos will make Spanish goods more competitive than Germany`s even if the quality is slightly less. Then Italy will move out. In the meantime the smaller nations would also have left. Then Germany and France will be left plus some northern countries. They might try to stay with the euro but if that currency is 50% costlier compared to new European currencies, who will Germany export to? In addition Neo Nazism could spring up in Germany too, causing exit of foreigners, leaving ageing Germans in the country, causing Germany to reclaim its status of the 1990s--the Sick Man of Europe.

4. Therefore ECB and Bundesbank realize that economically the only way out for Germany is to agree to print more euros. This means more stimulus--from somewhere. Stimulus at this point of time is a double edged sword. It is unlikely to kick start growth. PIIGS residents are feared to withdraw more euros from their ATMs and stash it under their mattress. This is because this uncertainty will be seen by them as a warning. Why not keep cash or dollars instead of money in the bank? If people are to have confidence back in the banks, positive talks are needed in addition to euro printing. PIIGS should get the impression European Union will take care of them, come what may.

But for that to happen, inflation will remain a risk. German voters, who may not think long term, may not agree to that. Therefore Merkel`s dilemma (she is already politically weak) will be to make German voters angry now but save them later, or keep them pacified now (by not printing euros) and face their wrath after several years.

What is going to happen? Three possibilities:
(a) I think an immediate Grexit, however, unlikely, may be bad for the stock markets in the short term but will bring down commodity prices, so after a few weeks India will become very attractive. All our political problems will vanish if inflation falls and the Government will resume its authority.
(b) On the other hand, Greece remaining in EU in some form can only happen if more euros are printed which will flow into commodities and keep India quagmired in long term inflation.
(c) EU may do something else—recapitalize Greek banks, but not the government. This was a suggestion made by a prominent economist. This means Greek poiliticians are not being rewarded for being populist.

Let us see what happens. Tomorrow there will either be a relief rally or a downturn in the market. I shall be very surprised if the markets remain rangebound tomorrow.

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